"Political Identity and Conjunction Fallacy: Experimental Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election", 苗彬教授, 中国人民大学

标题：Political Identity and Conjunction Fallacy:  Experimental Evidence from  the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

主讲人：苗彬教授，中国人民大学，经济学院

日期：2025年4月9日（星期三）

时间：14:00 - 15:00

地点：T1-302-R1

摘要:

In a divided world, political identity can heighten the prevalence of heuristics in decision making. This study explores how political identity influences the conjunction fallacy in risk attitudes, whereby people prefer betting on a combination of two events rather than one of the two events, thus violating the basic law of monotonicity. In the context of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, we examine individual risk attitudes towards upcoming election outcomes and economic conditions a year later, both separately and in combination. Using a representative sample from the U.S., we find that people are more likely to exhibit conjunction fallacy in risk attitudes in congruent scenarios for the Democrats, whereby a Harris victory aligns with good economic conditions and a Trump victory coincides with bad conditions. Additionally, we measure individual beliefs about these events and demonstrate that the conjunction fallacy in beliefs partially contributes to the fallacy in risk attitudes. This study highlights the significant role of political identity in shaping preferences and beliefs.

主讲人:

苗彬是中国人民大学经济学院的教授。他在新加坡国立大学获得经济学博士和硕士学位，在南京大学获得学士学位。他的研究兴趣包括实验经济学、行为经济学和决策理论。苗教授的研究成果发表在《Econometrica》《Review of Economics and Statistics》和《Journal of Economic Theory》等国际顶级学术期刊上，并常在重要的国际学术会议上作报告。