"Political Identity and Conjunction Fallacy: Experimental Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election", Prof. Bin MIAO, Renmin University of China
Title: Political Identity and Conjunction Fallacy: Experimental Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Speaker: Prof. Bin MIAO (苗彬), School of Economics, Renmin University of China
Date: April 9, 2025 (Wednesday)
Time: 14:00 - 15:00
Location: T7-106-R1
Abstract:
In a divided world, political identity can heighten the prevalence of heuristics in decision making. This study explores how political identity influences the conjunction fallacy in risk attitudes, whereby people prefer betting on a combination of two events rather than one of the two events, thus violating the basic law of monotonicity. In the context of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, we examine individual risk attitudes towards upcoming election outcomes and economic conditions a year later, both separately and in combination. Using a representative sample from the U.S., we find that people are more likely to exhibit conjunction fallacy in risk attitudes in congruent scenarios for the Democrats, whereby a Harris victory aligns with good economic conditions and a Trump victory coincides with bad conditions. Additionally, we measure individual beliefs about these events and demonstrate that the conjunction fallacy in beliefs partially contributes to the fallacy in risk attitudes. This study highlights the significant role of political identity in shaping preferences and beliefs.
Speaker Bio:
Prof. Bin MIAO holds a professorship at the School of Economics, Renmin University of China. He received his Ph.D. and M.A. in Economics from the National University of Singapore, and his B.A. from Nanjing University. His research interests lie in experimental economics, behavioral economics, and decision theory. He has published in leading journals such as Econometrica, Review of Economics and Statistics, and the Journal of Economic Theory, and is a frequent speaker at major international conferences.
